Post-Kyoto? : Post-Bush? : Towards an effective 'climate coalition of the willing'

Weak early compliance with the Kyoto Protocol's current emissions reduction targets and the longer term impact of the US's defection point to emerging problems for the Protocol's effectiveness and legitimacy. This article argues that such problems could in part be addressed by shifting the emphasis of negotiations over the Protocol's second commitment period away from attempts to reengage the United States. Instead, these negotiations and key actors like the European Union should aim for a framework and 'culture of compliance' that actively engage the 'emergent major emitters', China, India and Brazil, either by including them in the Protocol's Annex B list of states, or in a new annex created specially to accommodate them.