Modeling and analysis of decision making problem for mitigating natural disaster risks

被引：79

作者：

Tamura, H ^{[1
]}

Yamamoto, K ^{[1
]}

Tomiyama, S ^{[1
]}

Hatono, I ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Osaka Univ, Grad Sch Engn Sci, Dept Syst & Human Sci, Toyonaka, Osaka 5608531, Japan

来源：

EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF OPERATIONAL RESEARCH | 2000年 / 122卷 / 02期

关键词：

decision analysis; modeling; risk analysis; utility theory; low probability high consequence events; planning earthquake safety;

D O I：

10.1016/S0377-2217(99)00247-7

中图分类号：

C93 [管理学];

学科分类号：

12 ; 1201 ; 1202 ; 120202 ;

摘要：

In this paper, we show that a value function under risk is useful to model low probability and high consequence events like earthquakes for which the expected utility theory is inadequate. First, we assume alternatives to improve buildings, some scenarios of earthquakes, costs to improve buildings, probability of death and injury and cost of restoring the building's damage for each scenario. Then we show that the value function under risk is an appropriate approach to model and analyze a decision making process with low probability and high consequence events. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

引用

页码：461 / 468

页数：8