Change in the Air

Wind grows to represent a large share of the energy consumed by end users, and therefore, more effort is being directed at developing the tools and information that grid operators need to operate the system reliably. One tool that has been identified as necessary is the ability of the grid operator to forecast wind plant output, including wind events on the system. The Western Interconnection has an installed capacity of approximately 200,000 MW available to meet a forecast peak load of 160,864 MW. Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) has an installed capacity of 72,712 MW available to meet a forecast peak load of 63,491 MW. The Eastern Interconnection has an installed capacity of approximately 755,000 MW to meet a forecast peak load of 630,000 MW. Wind-power production forecasts typically use a combination of physics-based and statistical models, known as numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. Meteorological and operational data from the wind plant play an important role in determining the forecast performance that can be achieved for a specific facility.