Synthesis of ecosystemic and ecoscreening modelling in solving problems of ecological safety

The traditional approach to modeling the state of complex ecological systems assumes realization of a series of numerical experiments with a dynamic model. The results obtained are difficult to evaluate for multicomponent systems. To give an integrated estimation of the state of an ecosystem as a whole is quite a complicated task. The synthesis of dynamic modeling for aggregated and averaged components of an ecosystem and ecoscreening approach for risk estimation is one way of overcoming this difficulty. The annual variations of the basic components of the ecological system (concentrations of phytoplankton, zooplankton, macroalgae, fish, nutrients, suspended and dissolved organic matter, and hydro-optical characteristics) are calculated from full dynamic modelling. The annual variations of ecological risk from effects on an ecological system are calculated based on the synthesis of the two approaches. This method was developed for prediction of variations of risk estimation for the north-western Black Sea shelf. The annual variations of risk are calculated when the ecological system is submitted to regular pollution and emergency situations. More accurate estimation of risk is reached by step wise application of each one of the approaches. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.