Adjusted estimates of United States China bilateral trade balances: An update

Large differences exist between the official United States and Chinese data on trade balances between the two countries. In this paper, four adjustments are made to the export and import data of the two governments: (i) freight along side (f.a.s.)-free on board (f.o.b.) and cost, insurance and freight (c.i.f.)-f.o.b. conversions; (ii) re-exports through Hong Kong (and elsewhere); (iii) re-export markups; and (iv) trade in services. After adjustments, our best estimate for the 2005 bilateral trade balance is $US170.7 billion, in China's favour, which is much larger than the official Chinese balance of $US114.2 billion but also much smaller than the official US balance of $US201.6 billion.