A disease and non-battle injury model based on Persian gulf war admission rates

Background Military planners must ensure adequate medical care for deployed troops including care for disease and non-battle injuries (DNBI). This study develops a heuristic model with the three distinct phases of a warfighting operation (build-up, ground combat, post-combat) to assist in predicting DNBI incidence during warfighting deployments. Methods Inpatient healthcare records of soldiers deployed to the Persian Gulf War who were admitted with DNBI diagnoses were analyzed. DNBI admission rates for the three phases of the operation were examined and compared to rates for US Army Forces Command (FORSCOM) posts in the US. Results DNBI admission rates among the phases were distinctly different. The operation's overall rate and 95th percentile daily rate were less than the FORSCOM FY 1990 annual rate. Conclusions The level of combat must be considered. The traditional use of average or overall rates should be abandoned when forecasting DNBI rates. Medical support projections should use separate 95th percentile DNBI admission rates for each of the phases. Published 2004 Wiley-Liss, Inc.