NEMS and MARKAL-MACRO models for energy-environmental-economic analysis: A comparison of the electricity and carbon reduction projections

The Annual Energy Outlook forecasts published by the United States Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the Department of Energy are based on results from the National Energy Modeling system (NEMS). This paper compares NEMS, which is used only in the U.S., with the U.S. version of MARKAL-MACRO (USMM) model, which is used in more than thirty-five countries. The two models predict similar results for the base 1999 US Annual Energy Outlook (AEO), but their results with carbon constraints are quite different. The differences of the models and those of their predictions are explained. USMM can be used to provide an alternative and complementary approach to projections of renewable technologies penetration and their potential in reducing carbon dioxide emissions in the USA.