Assessing long-term impacts of increased crop productivity on atmospheric CO2

A full assessment of the impacts of land clearance and crop production on atmospheric CO2 requires a systems approach, By considering long-term soil carbon changes and fossil fuel energy inputs, we show that increased crop productivity will alleviate CO2 release to the atmosphere primarily by preventing additional land cultivation, Each hectare of cropland undergoing a simulated threefold crop productivity increase here prevents a net release on the order of 150-200 Mg C to the atmosphere over 100 years by avoiding additional land cultivation which would otherwise be required. This effective carbon sink would slowly diminish with time due to fossil fuel energy input requirements, However, future self-containment of the energy needs of high-yield crop production may displace on the order of 1.0 Pg C per year of fossil fuel carbon, in addition to the carbon sink attributable to avoided land cultivation, By avoiding land cultivation, high yield crop systems also preserve natural ecosystems. (C) 1996 Elsevier Science Ltd.