Climate variability and forecasting surface water recovery from acidification: Modelling drought-induced sulphate release from wetlands

被引:43
作者
Aherne, J.
Larssen, T.
Cosby, B. J.
Dillon, P. J.
机构
[1] Trent Univ, Dept Environm & Resource Studies, Peterborough, ON K9J 7B8, Canada
[2] Norwegian Inst Water Res NIVA, Oslo, Norway
[3] Univ Virginia, Dept Environm Sci, Charlottesville, VA 22903 USA
基金
加拿大自然科学与工程研究理事会;
关键词
wetlands; climate variability; drought; MAGIC; redox-oxidation processes; sulphate; plastic lake; Canada;
D O I
10.1016/j.scitotenv.2006.02.041
中图分类号
X [环境科学、安全科学];
学科分类号
08 ; 0830 ;
摘要
Climate-induced drought events have been shown to have a significant influence on sulphate (SO42-)) export from forested catchments in central Ontario, subsequently delaying recovery of surface waters from acidification. Field and modelling studies have demonstrated that water table drawdown during drought periods promotes oxidation of previously stored (reduced) sulphur X Of (S) compounds in wetlands, with subsequent efflux of SO42- upon re-wetting. Although climate-induced changes in processes are generally not integrated into soil-acidification models, MAGIC (Model of Acidification of Groundwater in Catchments) includes a wetland compartment that incorporates redox processes driven by drought events. The potential confounding influence of climate-induced drought events on acidification recovery at Plastic Lake, south-central Ontario (under proposed future S emission reductions) was investigated using MAGIC and two climate scenarios: monthly precipitation and runoff based on long-term means (average-climate scenario), and variable precipitation and runoff based on the past 20 years of observed monthly data (variable-climate scenario). The variable-climate scenario included several periods of summer drought owing to lower than average rainfall and higher then average temperature. Nonetheless, long-term regional trends in precipitation and temperature suggest that the variable-climate scenario may be a conservative estimate of future climate. The average-climate scenario indicated good recovery potential with acid neutralising capacity (ANC) reaching approximately 40 mu mol(c)L(-1) by 2020 and 50 mu mol(c)L(-1) by 2080. In contrast, the forecasted recovery potential under the variable-climate scenario was very much reduced. By 2080, ANC was forecasted to increase to 2.6 mu mol(c)L(-1) from -10.0 mu mol(c)L(-1) in 2000. Elevated SO42- efflux following drought events (introduced under the variable-climate scenario) has a dramatic impact on simulated future surface water chemistry. The results clearly demonstrate that prediction of future water quality, using models such as MAGIC, should take into account changes or variability in climate as well as acid deposition. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
引用
收藏
页码:186 / 199
页数:14
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