Systematic Assessment of Multiple Routine and Near Real-Time Indicators to Classify the Severity of Influenza Seasons and Pandemics in the United States, 2003-2004 Through 2015-2016

被引:61
作者
Biggerstaff, Matthew [1 ]
Kniss, Krista [1 ]
Jernigan, Daniel B. [2 ]
Brammer, Lynnette [1 ]
Bresee, Joseph [2 ]
Garg, Shikha [1 ]
Burns, Erin [2 ]
Reed, Carrie [1 ]
机构
[1] Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Epidemiol & Prevent Branch, Influenza Div, Natl Ctr Immunizat & Resp Dis, Atlanta, GA USA
[2] Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Influenza Div, Natl Ctr Immunizat & Resp Dis, Atlanta, GA USA
关键词
epidemics; influenza; intensity; pandemics; severity; MOVING EPIDEMIC METHOD; A H1N1; SURVEILLANCE; HOSPITALIZATIONS; ILLNESS; VACCINATION; RECEIPT;
D O I
10.1093/aje/kwx334
中图分类号
R1 [预防医学、卫生学];
学科分类号
1004 ; 120402 ;
摘要
Assessments of influenza season severity can guide public health action. We used the moving epidemic method to develop intensity thresholds (ITs) for 3 US surveillance indicators from the 2003-2004 through 2014-2015 influenza seasons (excluding the 2009 pandemic). The indicators were: 1) outpatient visits for influenza-like illness; 2) influenza-related hospitalizations; and 3) influenza- and pneumonia-related deaths. ITs were developed for the population overall and separately for children, adults, and older adults, and they were set at the upper limit of the 50% (IT50), 90% (IT90 ), and 98% (IT98 ) 1-sided confidence intervals of the geometric mean of each season's 3 highest values. Severity was classified as low if >= 2 systems peaked below IT50 , moderate if >= 2 peaked between IT50 and IT90 , high if >= 2 peaked between IT90 and IT98 , and very high if >= 2 peaked above IT98 . We pilot-tested this method with the 2015-2016 season and the 2009 pandemic. Overall, 4 seasons were classified as low severity, 7 as moderate, 2 as high, and none as very high. Among the age groups, older adults had the most seasons (n = 3) classified as high, and children were the only group to have seasons (n = 2) classified as very high. We will apply this method to classify the severity of future seasons and inform pandemic response.
引用
收藏
页码:1040 / 1050
页数:11
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