The future of food demand: understanding differences in global economic models

被引：338

作者：

Valin, Hugo ^{[1
]}

Sands, Ronald D. ^{[2
]}

van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique ^{[3
]}

Nelson, Gerald C. ^{[4
,5
]}

Ahammad, Helal ^{[6
]}

Blanc, Elodie ^{[7
]}

Bodirsky, Benjamin ^{[8
]}

Fujimori, Shinichiro ^{[9
]}

Hasegawa, Tomoko ^{[9
]}

Havlik, Petr ^{[1
]}

Heyhoe, Edwina ^{[6
]}

Kyle, Page ^{[10
]}

Mason-D'Croz, Daniel ^{[4
]}

Paltsev, Sergey ^{[7
]}

Rolinski, Susanne ^{[8
]}

Tabeau, Andrzej ^{[11
]}

van Meijl, Hans ^{[11
]}

von Lampe, Martin ^{[12
]}

Willenbockel, Dirk ^{[13
]}

机构：

[1] Int Inst Appl Syst Anal, Ecosyst Serv & Management Program, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria

[2] Econ Res Serv, Resource & Rural Econ Div, USDA, Washington, DC 20250 USA

[3] Food & Agr Org United Nations FAO, Agr Dev Econ Div ESAD, I-00153 Rome, Italy

[4] Int Food Policy Res Inst, Environm & Prod Technol Div, Washington, DC 20006 USA

[5] Univ Illinois, Champaign, IL 61801 USA

[6] ABARES, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia

[7] MIT, Joint Program Sci & Policy Global Change, Cambridge, MA 02139 USA

[8] Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res PIK, D-14473 Potsdam, Germany

[9] Ctr Social & Environm Syst Res, NIES, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 3058506, Japan

[10] Pacific NW Natl Lab, Joint Global Change Res Inst, College Pk, MD 20740 USA

[11] Wageningen Univ & Res Ctr, Agr Econ Res Inst LEI, NL-2585 DB The Hague, Netherlands

[12] OECD, TAD, F-75775 Paris 16, France

[13] Univ Sussex, Inst Dev Studies, Brighton BN1 9RE, E Sussex, England

来源：

AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS | 2014年 / 45卷 / 01期

基金：

美国农业部; 美国能源部;

关键词：

World food demand; Socioeconomic pathways; Climate change; Computable general equilibrium; Partial equilibrium; AGRICULTURE; SCENARIOS;

D O I：

10.1111/agec.12089

中图分类号：

F3 [农业经济];

学科分类号：

0202 ; 020205 ; 1203 ;

摘要：

Understanding the capacity of agricultural systems to feed the world population under climate change requires projecting future food demand. This article reviews demand modeling approaches from 10 global economic models participating in the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP). We compare food demand projections in 2050 for various regions and agricultural products under harmonized scenarios of socioeconomic development, climate change, and bioenergy expansion. In the reference scenario (SSP2), food demand increases by 59-98% between 2005 and 2050, slightly higher than the most recent FAO projection of 54% from 2005/2007. The range of results is large, in particular for animal calories (between 61% and 144%), caused by differences in demand systems specifications, and in income and price elasticities. The results are more sensitive to socioeconomic assumptions than to climate change or bioenergy scenarios. When considering a world with higher population and lower economic growth (SSP3), consumption per capita drops on average by 9% for crops and 18% for livestock. The maximum effect of climate change on calorie availability is -6% at the global level, and the effect of biofuel production on calorie availability is even smaller.

引用

页码：51 / 67

页数：17

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