Sharing a quota on cumulative carbon emissions

被引:261
作者
Raupach, Michael R. [1 ]
Davis, Steven J. [2 ]
Peters, Glen P. [3 ]
Andrew, Robbie M. [3 ]
Canadell, Josep G. [4 ]
Ciais, Philippe [5 ]
Friedlingstein, Pierre [6 ]
Jotzo, Frank [7 ]
van Vuuren, Detlef P. [8 ,9 ]
Le Quere, Corinne [10 ]
机构
[1] Australian Natl Univ, Climate Change Inst, Canberra, ACT 0200, Australia
[2] Univ Calif Irvine, Dept Earth Syst Sci, Irvine, CA 92697 USA
[3] CICERO, N-0318 Oslo, Norway
[4] Global Carbon Project, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia
[5] CEA CNRS UVSQ, Ctr Etud Orme des Merisiers, IPSL LSCE, F-91191 Gif Sur Yvette, France
[6] Univ Exeter, Coll Engn Math & Phys Sci, Exeter EX4 4QF, Devon, England
[7] Australian Natl Univ, Crawford Sch Publ Policy, Canberra, ACT 0200, Australia
[8] PBL Netherlands Environm Assessment Agcy, NL-3720 AH Bilthoven, Netherlands
[9] Univ Utrecht, Fac Geosci, Copernicus Inst Sustainable Dev, NL-3508 TC Utrecht, Netherlands
[10] Univ E Anglia, Tyndall Ctr Climate Change Res, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England
基金
澳大利亚研究理事会; 英国自然环境研究理事会; 欧盟第七框架计划;
关键词
CLIMATE-CHANGE; INTERNATIONAL-TRADE; BRAZILIAN PROPOSAL; CO2; EMISSIONS; RESPONSIBILITY; FRAMEWORK; TARGETS; COSTS;
D O I
10.1038/NCLIMATE2384
中图分类号
X [环境科学、安全科学];
学科分类号
08 ; 0830 ;
摘要
Any limit on future global warming is associated with a quota on cumulative global CO2 emissions. We translate this global carbon quota to regional and national scales, on a spectrum of sharing principles that extends from continuation of the present distribution of emissions to an equal per-capita distribution of cumulative emissions. A blend of these endpoints emerges as the most viable option. For a carbon quota consistent with a 2 degrees C warming limit (relative to pre-industrial levels), the necessary long-term mitigation rates are very challenging (typically over 5% per year), both because of strong limits on future emissions from the global carbon quota and also the likely short-term persistence in emissions growth in many regions.
引用
收藏
页码:873 / 879
页数:7
相关论文
共 62 条
  • [1] Warming caused by cumulative carbon emissions towards the trillionth tonne
    Allen, Myles R.
    Frame, David J.
    Huntingford, Chris
    Jones, Chris D.
    Lowe, Jason A.
    Meinshausen, Malte
    Meinshausen, Nicolai
    [J]. NATURE, 2009, 458 (7242) : 1163 - 1166
  • [2] A synthesis of carbon dioxide emissions from fossil-fuel combustion
    Andres, R. J.
    Boden, T. A.
    Breon, F. -M.
    Ciais, P.
    Davis, S.
    Erickson, D.
    Gregg, J. S.
    Jacobson, A.
    Marland, G.
    Miller, J.
    Oda, T.
    Olivier, J. G. J.
    Raupach, M. R.
    Rayner, P.
    Treanton, K.
    [J]. BIOGEOSCIENCES, 2012, 9 (05) : 1845 - 1871
  • [3] [Anonymous], 2011, The Garnaut Climate Change Review 2011, DOI DOI 10.1017/CBO9781139107280
  • [4] [Anonymous], EN STUD 2013 RES RES
  • [5] [Anonymous], TECHNOL FOR IN PRESS
  • [6] Carbon capture and storage from fossil fuels and biomass -: Costs and potential role in stabilizing the atmosphere
    Azar, Christian
    Lindgren, Kristian
    Larson, Eric
    Moellersten, Kenneth
    [J]. CLIMATIC CHANGE, 2006, 74 (1-3) : 47 - 79
  • [7] Bartsch U., 2000, Fossil fuels in a changing climate: impacts of the Kyoto Protocol and developing country participation
  • [8] Response of climate to regional emissions of ozone precursors: sensitivities and warming potentials
    Berntsen, TK
    Fuglestvedt, JS
    Joshi, MM
    Shine, KP
    Stuber, N
    Ponater, M
    Sausen, R
    Hauglustaine, DA
    Li, L
    [J]. TELLUS SERIES B-CHEMICAL AND PHYSICAL METEOROLOGY, 2005, 57 (04): : 283 - 304
  • [9] Contraction and convergence: an assessment of the CCOptions model
    Bows, Alice
    Anderson, Kevin
    [J]. CLIMATIC CHANGE, 2008, 91 (3-4) : 275 - 290
  • [10] Clarke L., 2014, IPCC CLIMATE CHANGE