The relationship between the amplitude and descending time of a solar activity cycle

被引：39

作者：

Du, Zhanle ^{[1
]}

Du, Shouyu

机构：

[1] Chinese Acad Sci, Natl Astron Observ, Beijing 100012, Peoples R China

[2] Hebei Teachers Univ, Middle Sch, Shijiazhuang 050011, Peoples R China

来源：

SOLAR PHYSICS | 2006年 / 238卷 / 02期

基金：

中国国家自然科学基金;

关键词：

D O I：

10.1007/s11207-006-0175-5

中图分类号：

P1 [天文学];

学科分类号：

0704 ;

摘要：

The amplitude of a solar-activity cycle is found to be well correlated (r = -0.811) with the descending time three cycles earlier, in smoothed monthly-mean sunspot numbers for Cycles 8 - 23. The descending time therefore can be used as one of the indicators to predict the amplitudes. As a result, the amplitudes of Cycles 24 - 25 are estimated to be 114.8 +/- 17.4, 111.6 +/- 17.4, respectively, where the error bar equals +/- standard error.

引用

页码：431 / 437

页数：7

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