Differences between carbon budget estimates unravelled

被引：216

作者：

Rogelj, Joeri ^{[1
,2
]}

Schaeffer, Michiel ^{[3
,4
]}

Friedlingstein, Pierre ^{[5
]}

Gillett, Nathan P. ^{[6
]}

van Vuuren, Detlef P. ^{[7
,8
]}

Riahi, Keywan ^{[1
,9
]}

Allen, Myles ^{[10
,11
]}

Knutti, Reto ^{[2
]}

机构：

[1] Int Inst Appl Syst Anal, ENE Program, Schlosspl 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria

[2] Swiss Fed Inst Technol, Inst Atmospher & Climate Sci, Univ Str 16, CH-8092 Zurich, Switzerland

[3] Climate Analyt, Karl Liebknechtstr 5, D-10178 Berlin, Germany

[4] Univ Wageningen & Res Ctr, Environm Syst Anal Grp, POB 47, NL-6700 AA Wageningen, Netherlands

[5] Univ Exeter, Coll Engn Math & Phys Sci, Exeter EX4 4QF, Devon, England

[6] Univ Victoria, Canadian Ctr Climate Modelling & Anal, Environm Canada, POB 1700,STN CSC, Victoria, BC V8W 2Y2, Canada

[7] PBL Netherlands Environm Assessment Agcy, POB 303, NL-3720 AH Bilthoven, Netherlands

[8] Univ Utrecht, Copernicus Inst Sustainable Dev, Fac Geosci, Budapestlaan 4, NL-3584 CD Utrecht, Netherlands

[9] Graz Univ Technol, A-8010 Graz, Austria

[10] Univ Oxford, ECI, Sch Geog & Environm, S Parks Rd, Oxford OX1 3QY, England

[11] Univ Oxford, Dept Phys, Parks Rd, Oxford OX1 3PU, England

来源：

NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE | 2016年 / 6卷 / 03期

关键词：

CO2; EMISSIONS; CUMULATIVE CARBON; ATMOSPHERE-OCEAN; SIMPLER MODEL; CYCLE MODELS; CLIMATE; MITIGATION; TARGETS; UNCERTAINTY; SCENARIOS;

D O I：

10.1038/NCLIMATE2868

中图分类号：

X [环境科学、安全科学];

学科分类号：

08 ; 0830 ;

摘要：

Several methods exist to estimate the cumulative carbon emissions that would keep global warming to below a given temperature limit. Here we review estimates reported by the IPCC and the recent literature, and discuss the reasons underlying their differences. The most scientifically robust number - the carbon budget for CO2-induced warming only - is also the least relevant for real-world policy. Including all greenhouse gases and using methods based on scenarios that avoid instead of exceed a given temperature limit results in lower carbon budgets. For a >66% chance of limiting warming below the internationally agreed temperature limit of 2 degrees C relative to pre-industrial levels, the most appropriate carbon budget estimate is 590-1,240 GtCO(2) from 2015 onwards. Variations within this range depend on the probability of staying below 2 degrees C and on end-of-century non-CO2 warming. Current CO2 emissions are about 40 GtCO(2) yr(-1), and global CO2 emissions thus have to be reduced urgently to keep within a 2 degrees C-compatible budget.

引用

页码：245 / 252

页数：8

共 53 条

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