Seasonal to interannual Arctic sea ice predictability in current global climate models

被引：109

作者：

Tietsche, S. ^{[1
]}

Day, J. J. ^{[1
]}

Guemas, V. ^{[2
,3
]}

Hurlin, W. J. ^{[4
]}

Keeley, S. P. E. ^{[5
]}

Matei, D. ^{[6
]}

Msadek, R. ^{[4
]}

Collins, M. ^{[7
]}

Hawkins, E. ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Reading, Dept Meteorol, NCAS Climate, Reading, Berks, England

[2] Inst Catala Ciencies Clima, Barcelona, Spain

[3] CNRM GAME, Toulouse, France

[4] Geophys Fluid Dynam Lab, Princeton, NJ USA

[5] European Ctr Medium Range Weather Forecasts, Reading RG2 9AX, Berks, England

[6] Max Planck Inst Meteorol, D-20146 Hamburg, Germany

[7] Univ Exeter, Coll Engn Math & Phys Sci, Exeter, Devon, England

来源：

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS | 2014年 / 41卷 / 03期

基金：

英国自然环境研究理事会;

关键词：

seasonal to decadal predictability; Arctic; sea ice; global climate models; PREDICTION; EXTENT;

D O I：

10.1002/2013GL058755

中图分类号：

P [天文学、地球科学];

学科分类号：

07 ;

摘要：

We establish the first intermodel comparison of seasonal to interannual predictability of present-day Arctic climate by performing coordinated sets of idealized ensemble predictions with four state-of-the-art global climate models. For Arctic sea ice extent and volume, there is potential predictive skill for lead times of up to 3 years, and potential prediction errors have similar growth rates and magnitudes across the models. Spatial patterns of potential prediction errors differ substantially between the models, but some features are robust. Sea ice concentration errors are largest in the marginal ice zone, and in winter they are almost zero away from the ice edge. Sea ice thickness errors are amplified along the coasts of the Arctic Ocean, an effect that is dominated by sea ice advection. These results give an upper bound on the ability of current global climate models to predict important aspects of Arctic climate.

引用

页码：1035 / 1043

页数：9

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