All-Cause Mortality Rate in Patients with Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis Implications for the Design and Execution of Clinical Trials

Rationale: FVC has emerged as a standard primary endpoint in clinical trials evaluating novel therapies for patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF). However, it has recently been proposed that all-cause mortality or a composite comprised of all-cause mortality and all-cause nonelective hospitalization be adopted as the standard primary endpoint for IPF clinical trials. Objectives: To conduct a comprehensive evaluation of mortality in three phase 3 clinical trials and evaluate the feasibility of mortality trials in patients with IPF. Methods: The study population included 622 patients randomized to placebo in the CAPACITY studies evaluating pirfenidone (n = 347) or the INSPIRE study evaluating interferon-gamma 1b (n = 275). The Kaplan-Meier estimate of 2-year survival was fit to the exponential distribution and used to calculate sample size requirements for a mortality study with 90% power to detect a 25% reduction in all-cause mortality with a two-sided a of 0.05. Modeling analyses were used to assess the effects of selected variables on sample size and study design. Measurements and Main Results: A total of 73 deaths occurred during the period of observation (mean duration of follow-up, 80.1 wk). The all-cause mortality rate was 6.6% at 1 year and 13.7% at 2 years. Based on the observed 2-year mortality rate, a total of 508 events would be required to detect a significant treatment benefit in a two-arm trial with 90% power to detect a 25% reduction in all-cause mortality. The estimated sample size for a trial enrolled over 3 years with a maximum follow-up period of 5 years is 2,582 patients. Conclusions: The all-cause mortality rate is relatively low in patients with IPF with mild to moderate impairment in lung function. Accordingly, the necessary size, duration, and cost of all-cause mortality trials in this population are substantial and likely prohibitive.