Wood supply and demand around two rural settlements in a semi-arid Savanna, South Africa

Data on fuelwood harvesting, construction timber requirements and the number of people in two settlements in the Eastern Transvaal Lowveld (Athol and Welverdiend) is combined with woody biomass information in the form of a numerical model. This allows the investigation of the relationship between woodland supply and local wood demand. The effects of uncertainty in primary data collection, and of possible changes to the harvesting pressure on the woodland are illustrated. Given the assumptions of the model, current harvest rates around Athol are shown to be sustainable, although the increase in wood demand resulting from an estimated population growth rate of 3% will cause woodland stocks to decline after 20 years. The Welverdiend model shows a marked imbalance between available supply and demand. Continuation of current harvesting practice would lead to severe deforestation within 15 years. The investigative scenarios presented emphasize the advantages to be gained from rapid reduction in woody biomass harvesting, resulting in better long term sustainable harvests. The significant changes in per capita fuelwood harvest would however seriously impact on households, and it is thus important that the models be utilized within a much broader holistic framework in the development of solutions appropriate to local areas. Copyright (C) 1996 Elsevier Science Ltd.