Exchange rate variability and China's exports

This paper estimates the impact of exchange rate variability on total exports and exports of China by SITC category. Exchange rate variability is estimated by the conditional variance of the real effective exchange rate index from an autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic model. Test procedures that allow for multiple structural breaks are used to examine the stationarity property of variables and to test cointegration. Estimation results show that exchange rate variability has a long-run negative effect on total exports, exports of manufactured goods, and exports of mineral fuels. They support the hypothesis that exchange rate uncertainty impedes trade in China. (C) 2000 Academic Press.