Stratospheric polar vortex influence on Northern Hemisphere winter climate variability

被引：87

作者：

Douville, H. ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Meteo France, CNRM, GMGEC, UDC,CNRS,GAME, F-31057 Toulouse 01, France

来源：

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS | 2009年 / 36卷

关键词：

SUDDEN WARMINGS; SKILL; SIMULATIONS; PREDICTION; DEMETER; MODEL;

D O I：

10.1029/2009GL039334

中图分类号：

P [天文学、地球科学];

学科分类号：

07 ;

摘要：

Given the low skill of seasonal forecasts in the Northern Hemisphere, it is important to look for extra sources of long-range predictability in addition to the global distribution of sea surface temperature (SST). Former studies have suggested the potential contribution of the stratosphere but have never really quantified this influence and compared it to the SST forcing. In the present study, two ensembles of global atmospheric simulations driven by observed SST and radiative forcings have been performed over the 1971-2000 period. In the perturbed experiment, the stratospheric dynamics and temperature is nudged towards the ERA40 reanalyses north of 25 degrees N in order to mimic a "perfect" polar vortex. The comparison with the control experiment reveals a strong improvement in the simulation of the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillation, with obvious positive impacts on the interannual variability of winter surface air temperature and precipitation, especially over Europe. Citation: Douville, H. (2009), Stratospheric polar vortex influence on Northern Hemisphere winter climate variability, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L18703, doi:10.1029/2009GL039334.

引用

页数：5

共 15 条

[1] Response of the northern stratospheric polar vortex to the seasonal alignment of QBO phase transitions [J].

Anstey, J. A. ;

Shepherd, T. G. .

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2008, 35 (22)

[2] QBO influence on extratropical predictive skill [J].

Boer, G. J. ;

Hamilton, K. .

CLIMATE DYNAMICS, 2008, 31 (7-8) :987-1000

[3] An interpretation of the results from atmospheric general circulation models forced by the time history of the observed sea surface temperature distribution [J].

Bretherton, CS ;

Battisti, DS .

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2000, 27 (06) :767-770

[4] A new look at stratospheric sudden warmings. Part II: Evaluation of numerical model simulations [J].

Charlton, Andrew J. ;

Polvani, Lorenzo M. ;

Perlwitz, Judith ;

Sassi, Fabrizio ;

Manzini, Elisa ;

Shibata, Kiyotaka ;

Pawson, Steven ;

Nielsen, J. Eric ;

Rind, David .

JOURNAL OF CLIMATE, 2007, 20 (03) :470-488

[5] A new look at stratospheric sudden warmings. Part I: Climatology and modeling benchmarks [J].

Charlton, Andrew J. ;

Polvani, Lorenzo M. .

JOURNAL OF CLIMATE, 2007, 20 (03) :449-469

[6] Stratosphere-troposphere coupling and links with Eurasian land surface variability [J].

Cohen, Judah ;

Barlow, Mathew ;

Kushner, Paul J. ;

Saito, Kazuyuki .

JOURNAL OF CLIMATE, 2007, 20 (21) :5335-5343

[7] Improved skill of Northern Hemisphere winter surface temperature predictions based on land-atmosphere fall anomalies [J].

Cohen, Judah ;

Fletcher, Christopher .

JOURNAL OF CLIMATE, 2007, 20 (16) :4118-4132

[8] Relative contribution of soil moisture and snow mass to seasonal climate predictability: a pilot study [J].

Douville, Herve .

CLIMATE DYNAMICS, 2010, 34 (06) :797-818

[9] Actual and potential skill of seasonal predictions using the CNRM contribution to DEMETER:: coupled versus uncoupled model [J].

Guérémy, JF ;

Déqué, M ;

Braun, A ;

Piedelièvre, JP .

TELLUS SERIES A-DYNAMIC METEOROLOGY AND OCEANOGRAPHY, 2005, 57 (03) :308-319

[10] The role of the stratosphere in the European climate response to El Nino [J].

Ineson, S. ;

Scaife, A. A. .

NATURE GEOSCIENCE, 2009, 2 (01) :32-36

← 1 2 →