Does follow-up duration influence the ultrasound and DXA prediction of hip fracture? The EPIDOS prospective study

While the potential of quantitative ultrasound (QUS) in the management of osteoporosis has been accepted, its interaction with follow-up time has never been investigated. The aim of our study is to prospectively evaluate the influence of follow-up time on the prediction of hip fracture by ultrasound parameters in the elderly as compared to bone mineral density (BMD) and to establish a long-term fracture prediction model. In the multicenter prospective study EPIDOS, 5898 Caucasian healthy women, aged 75 and over, had femoral dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) and heel ultrasound measurements at baseline. A survey of fracture occurrence was conducted every 4 months. Statistical analyses were performed for three different average lengths of follow-up, namely, 1.5, 2.5 and 3.5 years. Relative risks per standard deviation decrease (RR) and the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUC) curves were given. Estimates of the long-term hip fracture prediction by DXA and QUS were extrapolated. During an average of 3.5 years follow-up, 227 women sustained their first non-traumatic hip fracture. For the three categories of follow-up, low values of both calcaneal ultrasound and hip BMD were associated with a significant increased risk of hip fracture [e.g. ultrasound Stiffness index RR = 2.8 (2.1-3.8), 2.1 (1.7-2.6) and 1.9 (1.7-2.3) for 1.5, 2.5 and 3.5 years of follow-up, respectively]. The combination of femoral neck BMD with the Stiffness showed an improvement of the hip fracture prediction model. Using extrapolation, the prediction of hip fracture by the Stiffness remained significant up to 7.5 years [RR = 1.2 (1.03-1.41)], whereas the limit of significance was reached at 10 years for the femoral neck BMD [RR = 1.25 (1.04-1.52)]. Our results indicate that the Stiffness tends to be the best short- and long-term predictor of hip fracture among ultrasound parameters. This paper provides additional information on the long-term prediction of hip fracture, which has always been an important issue in routine clinical practice as it influences the management of the disease. Our model should give a relatively good estimation of the fracture risk prediction at 5 years with the ultrasound and 10 years for the femoral neck BMD. (C) 2004 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.