Interpreting changes in heroin supply in Melbourne: droughts, gluts or cycles?

In this Harm Reduction Digest Paul Dietze and John Fitzgerald provide another possible way of understanding what has come to be referred to as Australia's heroin 'drought'. They examine evidence from Melbourne, Victoria and suggest that the apparent downturn in heroin availability in 2000 may, in part, be the result of an end of a heroin 'glut' and that perceptions of this phenomenon may be coloured by the development of more sophisticated indicators of the heroin market. They conclude with claims that the reasons for the reduction in drug consumption and adverse health outcomes, such as those attributed to interdiction, are thus premature.