'Surfing Toward the Future'

A new report, Surfing Towards the Future, by the Chilean National Council on Innovation for Competitiveness led by Fernando Flores, gives an unprecedented account of how innovations emerge. It proposes a skill set, 'surfing history,' based on reading waves of possibilities and riding them to success. Crucial elements are the climate of exploration and adventure, the timing, and balance when buffeted by the unpredictable events. Avalanche is an important metaphor for innovation. It is a cascading series of events where each one triggers new events. Entrepreneurs try to anticipate the right moment, the tipping point, when an innovation proposal will trigger an avalanche of people adopting the proposal. People need to understand the conditions that make the time for an invention fruitful and the dispositions that enable an inventor to sense the convergence and act on it.