Proximal tephra hazards: Recent eruption studies applied to volcanic risk in the Auckland volcanic field, New Zealand

Auckland, New Zealand is unique in being a metropolitan area built on an active volcanic field. Despite the small size and intensity of Auckland eruptions, the risk from tephra fall is high because of the high density of buildings and lifelines. The nature of this threat can be evaluated by comparisons with historical Strombolian and Hawaiian eruptions, which have occurred in nonpopulated areas. Cone-building phases of such eruptions are typically protracted, i.e., weeks to months in duration, prolonging the period during which emergency managers will have to fine tune mitigation for numerous parameters such as fluctuations in intensity and wind shifts. Rapid cone growth during future eruptions will define a region of some 30 to 100 ha where complete destruction will occur on a time scale of hours. The cost of this destruction is likely to range between NZ$200M and NZ$1.4B (ca. US$130M to US$900M). Beyond this, we have modeled the cumulative long-term effect of the build-up of a downwind blanket of lapilli and ash by estimating accumulation rates for three phases of the 1959 Kilauea lki eruption in Hawai'i. The effect of changing wind direction was evaluated using low-level wind data from Auckland. These results show that intervals between 4 and 100 h will lapse before onset of significant damage to buildings. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V All rights reserved.