The role of oil prices and the real exchange rate in Russia's economy - a cointegration approach

Despite a lively debate on the importance of oil prices and the real exchange rate for Russia, little empirical research exists on this topic. In this paper, the impact of international oil prices and the real exchange rate on the Russian economy and its fiscal policy are analyzed using vector autoregressive (VAR) modeling and cointegration techniques. The results imply that the Russian economy is influenced significantly by fluctuations in oil prices and the real exchange rate through both long-run equilibrium conditions and short-run direct impacts. Although the underlying growth trend indicates the Russian economy has strengthened in recent years, we find no evidence that the role of oil prices has diminished. (C) 2004 Association for Comparative Economic Studies. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.