Covariates of cannabis use progression in a representative population sample of adolescents:: a prospective examination of vulnerabilitly and risk factors

Aims/design. This study reports findings concerning risk factors for first, "repeated" and "regular" use of cannabis in respondents (N = 1228) who were aged 14-17 years at the outset (i.e. at "baseline") as part of a longitudinal prospective community study (EDSP). Risk factors were assessed at baseline or by separate interviews with the respondents' parents. Cumulative life-time cannabis use was the main outcome measure in this study-assessed by information from both the baseline and the follow-up investigation at an average of 19.7 months later. A cumulative logistic regression model was used to estimate associations. Findings. Using seven of a total of 25 variables examined, the final model classified 72.1% of respondents correctly. Family history of substance use disorders, self-esteem and competence, unconditional commitment to not using drugs, immediate availability of drugs, peer group drug use and previous history of nicotine dependence and alcohol use disorders all contributed significantly to the final model, predicting the progression to cannabis use from "no use", to "one time only", "repeated use", and "regular use". Conclusion. In addition to well-documented risk factors such as peer group pressure, availability, low self-esteem and competence, findings suggest that family history and prior experiences with legal drugs play a significant role in the early development of cannabis consumption in teenagers.