Probabilistic assessment of power systems

Reliability is an important issue in power systems and historically has been assessed using deterministic criteria and indexes. However, these approaches can be, and in many cases have been, replaced by probabilistic methods that ui-e able to respond to the actual stochastic factors that influence the reliability of the system. In the days of global, completely integrated and/or nationalized electricity supply industries, the only significant objective was the reliability seen by actual end users (consumers). Also, the system was structured in a relatively simple way such that generation, transmission, and distribution could be assessed as a series of sequential hierarchical levels. Failures at any level could cause interruptions of supply to the end user (the only specific customer at that rime). All planning and operational criteria (both deterministic and probabilistic) were intended to minimize such interruptions within economic limits. The system has been, or is being, restructured quite remarkably in recent times and now many individual parties are involved, often competitively, including generators (both remote large-scale generators, and small-scale distributed or embedded generators), network owners, network operators, energy suppliers, regulators, as well as the end users (consumers). Each of these par ties has a need to know the quality and performance of the system sector or subsector for which they (and their shareholders) are responsible. Therefore, there is now a need for a range reliability measures; the actual measure(s) needed varying between the different system parties. This paper addresses these issues and, in particular, reviews existing approaches and how these may be used and/or adapted to suit the needs and the required indexes of the new competitive industry and the different parties associated with it.