Estimation of direct runoff in the Thornthwaite water balance

Inclusion of direct runoff in water balance analysis makes the analysis more accurate and allows it to reflect important hydrologic effects of land use change such as urbanization. Water balance analysis is conveniently performed on a monthly basis. This paper reports the development of a model of monthly direct runoff consistent with the monthly bookkeeping format. The model was evaluated by comparison with direct runoff estimated by daily calculation using the Soil Conservation Service (SCS) method. The comparison employed six stations representing different climatic regions of the contiguous United States and eight values of SCS curve number. The results are statistically significant and produce little error.