Comparison of the ultrahigh energy cosmic ray flux observed by AGASA, HiRes, and Auger

The current measurements of the cosmic ray energy spectrum at ultra-high energies (E > 10(19) eV) are characterized by large systematic errors and poor statistics. In addition, the experimental results of the two experiments with the largest published data sets, AGASA and HiRes, appear to be inconsistent with each other, with AGASA seeing an unabated continuation of the energy spectrum even at energies beyond the Greisen-Zatsepin-Kuzmin cutoff energy at 10(19.6) eV. Given the importance of the related astrophysical questions regarding the unknown origin of these highly energetic particles, it is crucial that the extent to which these measurements disagree be well understood. Here we evaluate the consistency of the two measurements for the first time with a model-independent method that accounts for the large statistical and systematic errors of current measurements. We further compare the AGASA and HiRes spectra with the recently presented Auger spectrum. The method directly compares two measurements, bypassing the introduction of theoretical models for the shape of the energy spectrum. The inconsistency between the observations is expressed in terms of a Bayes factor, a standard statistic defined as the ratio of a separate parent source hypothesis to a single parent source hypothesis. Application to the data shows that the two-parent hypothesis is disfavored. We expand the method to allow comparisons between an experimental flux and that predicted by any model.