Statistical significance of climate sensitivity predictors obtained by data mining

被引：109

作者：

Caldwell, Peter M. ^{[1
]}

Bretherton, Christopher S. ^{[2
]}

Zelinka, Mark D. ^{[1
]}

Klein, Stephen A. ^{[1
]}

Santer, Benjamin D. ^{[1
]}

Sanderson, Benjamin M. ^{[3
]}

机构：

[1] Lawrence Livermore Natl Lab, Livermore, CA 94550 USA

[2] Univ Washington, Dept Atmospher Sci, Seattle, WA 98195 USA

[3] Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, Boulder, CO 80307 USA

来源：

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS | 2014年 / 41卷 / 05期

基金：

美国国家科学基金会;

关键词：

data mining; climate sensitivity; CMIP; intercomparison; ensemble; CARBON-DIOXIDE; FIELD SIGNIFICANCE; SEASONAL CYCLE; TEMPERATURE; CIRCULATION; MODELS;

D O I：

10.1002/2014GL059205

中图分类号：

P [天文学、地球科学];

学科分类号：

07 ;

摘要：

Several recent efforts to estimate Earth's equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) focus on identifying quantities in the current climate which are skillful predictors of ECS yet can be constrained by observations. This study automates the search for observable predictors using data from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. The primary focus of this paper is assessing statistical significance of the resulting predictive relationships. Failure to account for dependence between models, variables, locations, and seasons is shown to yield misleading results. A new technique for testing the field significance of data-mined correlations which avoids these problems is presented. Using this new approach, all 41,741 relationships we tested were found to be explainable by chance. This leads us to conclude that data mining is best used to identify potential relationships which are then validated or discarded using physically based hypothesis testing. Key Points <list list-type="bulleted"> <list-item id="grl51462-li-0001">Correlation magnitude is not sufficient proof of predictive skill <list-item id="grl51462-li-0002">Significance testing is complicated by model nonindependence in ensembles <list-item id="grl51462-li-0003">The best predictors of climate change are related to the Southern Ocean

引用

页码：1803 / 1808

页数：6

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