Fine-grain modeling of species' response to climate change: holdouts, stepping-stones, and microrefugia

被引：291

作者：

Hannah, Lee ^{[1
]}

Flint, Lorraine ^{[2
]}

Syphard, Alexandra D. ^{[3
]}

Moritz, Max A. ^{[4
]}

Buckley, Lauren B. ^{[5
]}

McCullough, Ian M. ^{[6
]}

机构：

[1] Conservat Int, Betty & Gordon Moore Ctr Sci & Oceans, Arlington, VA 22202 USA

[2] US Geol Survey, Sacramento, CA USA

[3] Conservat Biol Inst, La Mesa, CA USA

[4] Univ Calif Berkeley, Dept Environm Sci Policy & Management, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA

[5] Univ Washington, Dept Biol, Seattle, WA 98195 USA

[6] Univ Calif Santa Barbara, Bren Sch Environm Sci & Management, Santa Barbara, CA 93106 USA

来源：

TRENDS IN ECOLOGY & EVOLUTION | 2014年 / 29卷 / 07期

基金：

美国国家科学基金会;

关键词：

holdout; stepping-stone; microrefugia; climate change; range shift; conservation; GLOBAL CHANGE; RANGE SHIFTS; BIODIVERSITY; REFUGIA; PLANTS; METAPOPULATIONS; COMMUNITIES; CHALLENGES; FORECAST; DYNAMICS;

D O I：

10.1016/j.tree.2014.04.006

中图分类号：

Q14 [生态学（生物生态学）];

学科分类号：

071012 ; 0713 ;

摘要：

Microclimates have played a critical role in past species range shifts, suggesting that they could be important in biological response to future change. Terms are needed to discuss these future effects. We propose that populations occupying microclimates be referred to as holdouts, stepping stones and microrefugia. A holdout is a population that persists in a microclimate for a limited period of time under deteriorating climatic conditions. Stepping stones successively occupy microclimates in a way that facilitates species' range shifts. Microrefugia refer to populations that persist in microclimates through a period of unfavorable climate. Because climate projections show that return to present climate is highly unlikely, conservation strategies need to be built around holdouts and stepping stones, rather than low-probability microrefugia.

引用

页码：390 / 397

页数：8

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