Predicting the output from a complex computer code when fast approximations are available

被引:1089
作者
Kennedy, MC [1 ]
O'Hagan, A [1 ]
机构
[1] Univ Sheffield, Dept Probabil & Stat, Sheffield S3 7RH, S Yorkshire, England
关键词
Bayesian uncertainty analysis; computer experiment; Gaussian process; multi-level code;
D O I
10.1093/biomet/87.1.1
中图分类号
Q [生物科学];
学科分类号
07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;
摘要
We consider prediction and uncertainty analysis for complex computer codes which can be run at different levels of sophistication. In particular, we wish to improve efficiency by combining expensive runs of the most complex versions of the code with relatively cheap runs from one or more simpler approximations. A Bayesian approach is described in which prior beliefs about the codes are represented in terms of Gaussian processes. An example is presented using two versions of an oil reservoir simulator.
引用
收藏
页码:1 / 13
页数:13
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