The increasing impact of food production on nutrient export by rivers to the Bay of Bengal 1970-2050

被引:33
作者
Sattar, Md. Abdus [1 ]
Kroeze, Carolien [1 ]
Strokal, Maryna [1 ]
机构
[1] Wageningen Univ, Environm Syst Anal Grp, NL-6700 AA Wageningen, Netherlands
关键词
Food production; River export; Nutrient; The Bay of Bengal; Eutrophication; Scenario; HARMFUL ALGAL BLOOMS; MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES; DEVELOPING-COUNTRIES; FUTURE PROJECTIONS; COASTAL NITROGEN; SHRIMP CULTURE; CURRENT TRENDS; SEWAGE-SLUDGE; WATER-QUALITY; SOIL;
D O I
10.1016/j.marpolbul.2014.01.017
中图分类号
X [环境科学、安全科学];
学科分类号
08 ; 0830 ;
摘要
The objective of this study is to assess the impact of food production on river export of nutrients to the coastal waters of the Bay of Bengal in the past (1970 and 2000) and the future (2030 and 2050), and the associated potential for coastal eutrophication. We model nutrient export from land to sea, using the Global NEWS (Nutrient Export from WaterSheds) approach. We calculate increases in river export of N and P over time. Agricultural sources account for about 70-80% of the N and P in rivers. The coastal eutrophication potential is high in the Bay. In 2000, nutrient discharge from about 85% of the basin area of the Bay drains into coastal seas contributes to the risk of coastal eutrophication. By 2050, this may be 96%. We also present an alternative scenario in which N and P inputs to the Bay are 20-35% lower than in the baseline. (c) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
引用
收藏
页码:168 / 178
页数:11
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