Causes of exceptional atmospheric circulation changes in the Southern Hemisphere

被引：183

作者：

Marshall, GJ ^{[1
]}

Stott, PA

Turner, J

Connolley, WM

King, JC

Lachlan-Cope, TA

机构：

[1] British Antarctic Survey, NERC, Cambridge CB3 0ET, England

[2] Univ Reading, Met Off, Hadley Ctr Climate Predict & Res, Reading, Berks, England

来源：

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS | 2004年 / 31卷 / 14期

关键词：

D O I：

10.1029/2004GL019952

中图分类号：

P [天文学、地球科学];

学科分类号：

07 ;

摘要：

We demonstrate that recent observed trends in the annual and austral summer Southern Hemisphere Annular Mode (SAM) are unlikely to be due to internal climate variability, since they exceed any equivalent-length trends in a millennial General Circulation Model (GCM) control run with constant forcings. In contrast we show that observed trends in the SAM are consistent with the combined effects of anthropogenic and natural forcings in GCM simulations. As these trends begin prior to stratospheric ozone depletion we challenge the assertion that this process is primarily responsible for changes in the SAM. Moreover, anthropogenic forcings have a larger effect on the austral summer SAM in combination with natural forcings than when acting in isolation.

引用

页码：L142051 / 4

页数：4

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