A theory of technophysio evolution, with some implications for forecasting population, health care costs, and pension costs

被引:206
作者
Fogel, RW [1 ]
Costa, DL [1 ]
机构
[1] MIT, NATL BUR ECON RES, CAMBRIDGE, MA 02139 USA
关键词
D O I
10.2307/2061659
中图分类号
C921 [人口统计学];
学科分类号
摘要
We argue that over the past 300 years human physiology has been undergoing profound environmentally induced changes made possible by numerous advances in technology. These changes, which we call technophysio evolution, increased body size by over 50%, and greatly improved the robustness and capacity of vital organ systems. Because technophysio evolution is still ongoing, it is relevant to forecasts of longevity and morbidity and, therefore, to forecasts of the size of the elderly population and pension and health care costs.
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页码:49 / 66
页数:18
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