Value of different assays for detection of human cytomegalovirus (HCMV) in predicting the development of HCMV disease in human immunodeficiency virus-infected patients

In the present prospective study, five blood tests for detection of human cytomegalovirus (HCMV), nucleic acid sequence-based amplification (NASBA) for detection of early (immediate-early antigen) and late (pp67) mRNA, PCR for detection of HCMV DNA (DNA PCR), culture, and pp65 antigenemia assay, and culture and DNA PCR of urine and throat swab specimens were compared for their abilities to predict the development of disease caused by HCMV (HCMV disease). Of 101 human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected patients with less than or equal to 100 CD4(+) lymphocytes per mm(3), 25 patients developed HCMV disease. The pp65 antigenemia assay (sensitivity, 50%; specificity, 89%) and DNA PCR of blood (sensitivity, 69%; specificity, 75%) were most accurate in predicting the development of HCMV disease within the next 12 months. Both blood culture and late pp67 mRNA NASBA had high specificities (91 and 90%, respectively) but low sensitivities (25 and 13%, respectively). The sensitivities of urine culture, DNA PCR, throat swab specimen culture, DNA PCR, and NASBA of blood for detection of the immediate-early antigen were 73, 87, 53, 67, and 63%, respectively, and the specificities were 58, 46, 76, 60, and 72%, respectively. The positive predictive values of all tests however, were low and did not exceed 50%. In conclusion, virological screening by these qualitative assays for detection of HCMV is of limited value for prediction of the development of HCMV disease in HIV-infected patients.