Migration, risk, and liquidity constraints in El Salvador

The relationship between idiosyncratic economic shocks in El Salvador and migrant flows to the United States was studied using panel data from El Salvador that contained good measures of economic shocks and migrant flows. It was found that migration to the US is, in part, determined by the economic conditions that prevail in El Salvador. Adverse algricultural conditions in El Salvador tended to push household members to the US. In the absence of any shocks, the average probability that a household sends members abroad decreases by 24.26%. In contrast, households that were affected by the 2001 earthquakes tended to retain members at home.