The physical series algorithm of mid-long term load forecasting of power systems

The fluctuation of load of power systems is influenced by many factors. Mid-long term load forecasting is not only based on the information and materials of the power system itself, but is also limited by those of the social and economic as well as other factors of the area. Taking into consideration the influences of non-power systems, this paper has classified the different types of loads and proposed the basic conception of a 'load norm' of power systems and the physical series algorithm, and finally set up the mathematical models for the relevant mid-long term load forecasting. This paper has used this method to forecast the total consumption of the power load for a province in East China and that of the heavy industry of another province in Northwest China. The results proved to have a high precision of inverse calculation and forecasting credibility. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science S.A. All rights reserved.