An application of calculated fuzzy risk

被引:48
作者
Huang, CF
机构
[1] Beijing Normal Univ, Inst Resources Sci, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China
[2] Beijing Normal Univ, Minist Educ China, Key Lab Environm Change & Nat Disaster, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China
关键词
risk; fuzzy probability; information distribution; flood; order;
D O I
10.1016/S0020-0255(02)00156-1
中图分类号
TP [自动化技术、计算机技术];
学科分类号
0812 ;
摘要
In this paper, we use the interior-outer-set model to calculate the risk of crop flood and order farming alternatives for Huarong County, China, where only a small sample of eight observations is available. Any risk assessment from the data must be imprecise. The risk calculated by this suggested model is a particular case among imprecise probabilities, called possibility-probability distribution. We discuss in detail how to order alternatives based on a possibility-probability distribution. The result shows, aside subjective assessment, the fuzzy risk can also be calculated. The comparison shows that the ordering based on a calculated fuzzy risk is better than one based on a histogram estimate. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved.
引用
收藏
页码:37 / 56
页数:20
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