Regime identification in ASDEX upgrade

The ability to recognize the transition from the L-mode to the H-mode or from the H-mode to the improved H-mode reliably from a conveniently small number of measurements in real time is of increasing importance for machine control. Discriminant analysis has been applied to regime identification of plasma discharges in the ASDEX Upgrade tokamak. An observation consists of a set of plasma parameters averaged over a time slice in a discharge. The data set consists of all observations over different discharges and time slices. Discriminant analysis yields coefficients allowing the classification of a new observation. The results of a frequentist and a formal Bayesian approach to discriminant analysis are compared. With five plasma variables, a failure rate of 1.3% for predicting the L-mode and the H-mode confinement regime was achieved. With five plasma variables, a failure rate of 5.3% for predicting the H-mode and the improved H-mode confinement regime was achieved. The coefficients derived by discriminant analysis have been applied subsequently to discharges to illustrate the operation of regime identification in a real time control system.