BAYESIAN ANALYSIS OF RADIOCARBON DATES

被引:6509
作者
Ramsey, Christopher Bronk [1 ]
机构
[1] Univ Oxford, Res Lab Archaeol, Oxford OX1 3QY, England
基金
英国自然环境研究理事会;
关键词
CHRONOLOGICALLY ORDERED SAMPLES; C-14; DATES; CALIBRATION PROGRAM; AGE; INFORMATION; STATISTICS; SEQUENCES; ISRAEL; PEAT;
D O I
10.1017/S0033822200033865
中图分类号
P3 [地球物理学]; P59 [地球化学];
学科分类号
0708 ; 070902 ;
摘要
If radiocarbon measurements are to be used at all for chronological purposes, we have to use statistical methods for calibration. The most widely used method of calibration can be seen as a simple application of Bayesian statistics, which uses both the information from the new measurement and information from the WC calibration curve. In most dating applications, however, we have larger numbers of (14)C measurements and we wish to relate those to events in the past. Bayesian statistics provides a coherent framework in which such analysis can be performed and is becoming a core element in many (14)C dating projects. This article gives an overview of the main model components used in chronological analysis, their mathematical formulation, and examples of how such analyses can be performed using the latest version of the OxCal software (v4). Many such models can be put together, in a modular fashion, from simple elements, with defined constraints and groupings. In other cases, the commonly used "uniform phase" models might not be appropriate, and ramped, exponential, or normal distributions of events might be more useful. When considering analyses of these kinds, it is useful to be able run simulations on synthetic data. Methods for performing such tests are discussed here along with other methods of diagnosing possible problems with statistical models of this kind.
引用
收藏
页码:337 / 360
页数:24
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