Event-specific versus unitary causal accounts of optimism bias

Optimism bias is often assumed to have a unitary cause regardless of the event, however, factors causing it may actually be event-specific. In Experiment 1 (N = 23), subjects rated the importance of various causes for individual events. The results identified consistent differences in perceptions of causal factors across events. Experiment 2 (N = 190) employed the possible causal factors absent/exempt error and degree of motivation to investigate an event-specific theory of optimism bias in a manipulation design. Participants were encouraged to view one causal factor (absent/exempt or motivation) as either important or unimportant to future risk when they estimated their risk of absent/exempt-related, motivation-related and unrelated events (as determined in Experiment 1). A hanging control group received no manipulation. The event-specific theory's prediction that these manipulations would affect particular events and not others were not supported. However, discouraging the absent/exempt error reduced optimism bias across events, generally. Hence, a unitary and not an event-specific theory of optimism bias was supported. Furthermore,for the first time, the possible role of and confounding of cognitive manipulations of optimism bias by mood were evaluated, and not supported.