Predictive power of clomiphene citrate challenge test for failure of in vitro fertilization treatment

Background. To evaluate the impact of ovarian reserve on the outcome of in vitro fertilization (IVF) treatment in 140 women, in a total of 279 treatment cycles. Methods. All women underwent a clomiphene citrate (CC) challenge test to assess their ovarian reserve before IVF treatment. One hundred and eighteen women (84%) had normal basal follicle stimulating hormone (FSH) levels (3.1-10.0 IU/l) and 22 women (16%) had elevated FSH levels (> 10.0-24.0 IU/l). The FSH levels measured on cycle day 10 showed that 106 (76%) of the women could be regarded as having a normal ovarian reserve and 34 (24%) a diminished ovarian reserve. Results. In the group with diminished ovarian reserve, pregnancies and live births were dramatically lower than in the group with normal ovarian reserve. Counting only the first cycle (n = 140), the number of ongoing pregnancies and live birth rate were highly different between the two groups: 3% vs. 36% (1/33 vs. 28/78). Counting all treatment cycles (n = 210 + 69) the clinical pregnancy rate in the diminished ovarian reserve group was 6%-31% compared with the normal woman (4/69 compared 65/210). The number of started treatment cycles per woman were similar in the two groups. The length of the ovarian stimulations were slightly longer in the group with elevated FSH compared with the group with normal FSH levels. The number of cancellations resulting from insufficient ovarian response was significantly higher in the group with diminished ovarian reserve (n = 38, 55%) compared with the normal women (n = 32, 15%) (p < 0.0001). In addition, the average E2 levels before oocyte pick up were significantly lower in the group of women with diminished ovarian reserve compared with normal women (p < 0.0001). Calculation of the sensitivity and specificity of the CC test showed that an abnormal test has a high probability for a negative treatment outcome. The number of retrieved, fertilized oocytes, the number of divided oocytes, and the number of embryo transfers in the first as well as in all cycles differed significantly between the two of groups women (p < 0.001-0.009). Conclusions. We found that the CC challenge test is a useful tool in assessing a woman's ovarian capacity before infertility treatment. The predictive value of the test for a negative outcome of IVF treatment was strong. We recommend performing the test before infertility treatment. This may prevent unnecessary treatment trials and unrealistic expectations from both patients and doctors.