Northern winter climate change: Assessment of uncertainty in CMIP5 projections related to stratosphere-troposphere coupling

被引：136

作者：

Manzini, E. ^{[1
]}

Karpechko, A. Yu. ^{[2
]}

Anstey, J. ^{[3
]}

Baldwin, M. P. ^{[4
]}

Black, R. X. ^{[5
]}

Cagnazzo, C. ^{[6
]}

Calvo, N. ^{[7
]}

Charlton-Perez, A. ^{[8
]}

Christiansen, B. ^{[9
]}

Davini, Paolo ^{[10
]}

Gerber, E. ^{[11
]}

Giorgetta, M. ^{[1
]}

Gray, L. ^{[3
]}

Hardiman, S. C. ^{[12
]}

Lee, Y-Y ^{[13
]}

Marsh, D. R. ^{[14
]}

McDaniel, B. A. ^{[15
]}

Purich, A. ^{[16
]}

Scaife, A. A. ^{[12
]}

Shindell, D. ^{[17
]}

Son, S-W ^{[18
]}

Watanabe, S. ^{[19
]}

Zappa, G. ^{[20
]}

机构：

[1] Max Planck Inst Meteorol, D-20146 Hamburg, Germany

[2] Finnish Meteorol Inst, FIN-00101 Helsinki, Finland

[3] Univ Oxford, Dept Phys, Oxford, England

[4] Univ Exeter, Coll Engn Math & Phys Sci, Exeter, Devon, England

[5] Georgia Inst Technol, Sch Earth & Atmospher Sci, Atlanta, GA 30332 USA

[6] CNR, Ist Sci Atmosfera & Clima, Rome, Italy

[7] Univ Complutense Madrid, Dept Fis Tierra 2, Madrid, Spain

[8] Univ Reading, Dept Meteorol, Reading, Berks, England

[9] Danish Meteorol Inst, Copenhagen, Denmark

[10] CNR, Ist Sci Atmosfera & Clima, Turin, Italy

[11] NYU, Courant Inst Math Sci, New York, NY USA

[12] Met Off Hadley Ctr, Exeter, Devon, England

[13] Univ Calif Davis, Dept Land Air & Water Resources, Davis, CA 95616 USA

[14] Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, Boulder, CO 80307 USA

[15] Kennesaw State Univ, Dept Biol & Phys, Kennesaw, GA USA

[16] CSIRO Marine & Atmospher Res, Aspendale, Vic, Australia

[17] NASA, Goddard Inst Space Studies, New York, NY 10025 USA

[18] Seoul Natl Univ, Sch Earth & Environm Sci, Seoul, South Korea

[19] Japan Agcy Marine Earth Sci & Technol, Yokohama, Kanagawa, Japan

[20] Univ Reading, Natl Ctr Atmospher Sci, Reading, Berks, England

来源：

JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES | 2014年 / 119卷 / 13期

基金：

英国自然环境研究理事会; 美国国家科学基金会; 芬兰科学院;

关键词：

CIRCULATION RESPONSE; TEMPERATURE RESPONSE; OZONE RECOVERY; WAVE DRAG; PART I; VARIABILITY; ATLANTIC; 21ST-CENTURY; TRENDS; IMPACT;

D O I：

10.1002/2013JD021403

中图分类号：

P4 [大气科学（气象学）];

学科分类号：

070601 [气象学];

摘要：

Future changes in the stratospheric circulation could have an important impact on northern winter tropospheric climate change, given that sea level pressure (SLP) responds not only to tropospheric circulation variations but also to vertically coherent variations in troposphere-stratosphere circulation. Here we assess northern winter stratospheric change and its potential to influence surface climate change in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project-Phase 5 (CMIP5) multimodel ensemble. In the stratosphere at high latitudes, an easterly change in zonally averaged zonal wind is found for the majority of the CMIP5 models, under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario. Comparable results are also found in the 1% CO2 increase per year projections, indicating that the stratospheric easterly change is common feature in future climate projections. This stratospheric wind change, however, shows a significant spread among the models. By using linear regression, we quantify the impact of tropical upper troposphere warming, polar amplification, and the stratospheric wind change on SLP. We find that the intermodel spread in stratospheric wind change contributes substantially to the intermodel spread in Arctic SLP change. The role of the stratosphere in determining part of the spread in SLP change is supported by the fact that the SLP change lags the stratospheric zonally averaged wind change. Taken together, these findings provide further support for the importance of simulating the coupling between the stratosphere and the troposphere, to narrow the uncertainty in the future projection of tropospheric circulation changes.

引用

页码：7979 / 7998

页数：20

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