A Bayesian space varying parameter model applied to estimating fertility schedules

被引:27
作者
Assunçao, RM
Potter, JE
Cavenaghi, SM
机构
[1] Univ Fed Minas Gerais, Dept Estatist, BR-30161970 Belo Horizonte, MG, Brazil
[2] Univ Texas, Populat Res Ctr, Austin, TX 78712 USA
[3] Univ Estadual Campinas, NEPO, BR-13083970 Campinas, SP, Brazil
关键词
Bayesian maps; disease mapping; small area statistics;
D O I
10.1002/sim.1153
中图分类号
Q [生物科学];
学科分类号
07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;
摘要
We propose a spatial generalized linear model (GLM) to analyse the vital rates for small areas. In each small area, we have a response vector and covariates to explain its variability. The statistical methodology is based on a spatial Bayesian approach and it allows the covariates' parameters of the generalized linear model to vary smoothly on space. Hence, the effect of a covariate on the response varies depending on the random variables measurement location. Our model is an extension of disease mapping models allowing the space-covariate interaction to be modelled in a natural way and giving space a position of intrinsic interest. We introduce the model in the context of fertility curve estimation. In each small area, we have a curve describing the variation of fertility rates by age modelled by Coale's fertility model, which implies a GLM in each area. A simulation shows the advantages of our approach. In addition, the paper applies the procedure to census data used to study the diffusion of low fertility behaviour in Brazil. Copyright (C) 2002 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.
引用
收藏
页码:2057 / 2075
页数:19
相关论文
共 35 条
[1]   Diffusion and prediction of Leishmaniasis in a large metropolitan area in Brazil with a Bayesian space-time model [J].
Assuncao, RM ;
Reis, IA ;
Oliveira, CD .
STATISTICS IN MEDICINE, 2001, 20 (15) :2319-2335
[2]  
ASSUNCAO RM, 1998, P 16 LAT AM M EC SOC
[3]   EMPIRICAL BAYES VERSUS FULLY BAYESIAN-ANALYSIS OF GEOGRAPHICAL VARIATION IN DISEASE RISK [J].
BERNARDINELLI, L ;
MONTOMOLI, C .
STATISTICS IN MEDICINE, 1992, 11 (08) :983-1007
[4]   BAYESIAN-ANALYSIS OF SPACE-TIME VARIATION IN DISEASE RISK [J].
BERNARDINELLI, L ;
CLAYTON, D ;
PASCUTTO, C ;
MONTOMOLI, C ;
GHISLANDI, M ;
SONGINI, M .
STATISTICS IN MEDICINE, 1995, 14 (21-22) :2433-2443
[5]   BAYESIAN COMPUTATION AND STOCHASTIC-SYSTEMS [J].
BESAG, J ;
GREEN, P ;
HIGDON, D ;
MENGERSEN, K .
STATISTICAL SCIENCE, 1995, 10 (01) :3-41
[6]   BAYESIAN IMAGE-RESTORATION, WITH 2 APPLICATIONS IN SPATIAL STATISTICS [J].
BESAG, J ;
YORK, J ;
MOLLIE, A .
ANNALS OF THE INSTITUTE OF STATISTICAL MATHEMATICS, 1991, 43 (01) :1-20
[7]  
BESAG J, 1993, J ROY STAT SOC B MET, V55, P25
[8]  
BRILLINGER DR, 1986, BIOMETRICS, V42, P693, DOI 10.2307/2530689
[9]   PRACTICAL ASPECTS ON THE ESTIMATION OF THE PARAMETERS IN COALE MODEL FOR MARITAL FERTILITY [J].
BROSTROM, G .
DEMOGRAPHY, 1985, 22 (04) :625-631
[10]   EMPIRICAL BAYES ESTIMATES OF AGE-STANDARDIZED RELATIVE RISKS FOR USE IN DISEASE MAPPING [J].
CLAYTON, D ;
KALDOR, J .
BIOMETRICS, 1987, 43 (03) :671-681