Seasonal and inter-annual variations in the surface freshwater flux in the Mediterranean Sea from the ECMWF re-analysis project

Seasonal and inter-annual variations in surface freshwater fluxes in the Mediterranean Sea are examined. Evaporation and precipitation rates are estimated from ERA15, the re-analysis project carried out at the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) for the period 1979-1993. A seasonal cycle of river runoff is computed from a recent historical data set. The climatological mean for precipitation (326 mm/yr) is comparable to previous estimates, whereas that for evaporation (920 mm/yr) is low compared to other independent estimates, but regions of high and low evaporation rates are correctly located. The budget reveals an annual mean freshwater deficit in the Mediterranean of 480 mm/yr, lower than previous estimates because of the lower evaporation rate estimated by ECMWF. Consequently, the flows through the straits of Gibraltar and Sicily, deduced from the freshwater budget, are found to be slightly low. Seasonal and inter-annual variabilities of ERA15 precipitation are consistent with those deduced from independent precipitation estimates obtained with SSM/I observations for the 1988-1993 period. ECMWF and satellite estimates both agree on the amplitude of the seasonal cycle. The seasonal cycle of the river runoff has a globally small contribution to the freshwater budget, but is significant in summer when the precipitation is nearly null. The variability of the freshwater flux for the Mediterranean as a whole shows a strong seasonal cycle (amplitude of 50 mm/month), which seems to be mainly controlled by evaporation. The inter-annual variability of the freshwater flux, however, appears to be governed mainly by precipitation. Its amplitude, which is of the order of 50 mm/yr on average but may reach nearly 150 mm/yr for a particular year, is considered to be large but nevertheless not sufficient to explain differences observed in the estimates of the climatological mean freshwater flux proposed by various authors. The freshwater deficit in the Mediterranean Sea has globally increased by nearly 50 mm, mainly because of a decrease in precipitation over this 15-yr period. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.