Climatic and geographic patterns of river runoff formation in Northern Eurasia

Siberian rivers are of global importance as they impact on the freshwater budget of the Arctic Ocean, which affects the Thermo-Haline circulation in the North Atlantic Ocean. Siberian rivers, in particular the tributaries to the larger rivers, are under-represented in the international river-regime databases. The runoff of three Russian rivers in the Central Siberian taiga (Kureyka, Karabula and Erba) is modelled to analyse the relative influence of climate. In addition three rivers (Rhine, Maas and Odra) in Western Europe are similarly assessed as a control. The results show that the role of precipitation and autocorrelation as factors in the formation of river runoff is stronger under oceanic climate conditions, increasing from the central regions of Northern Eurasia towards the Arctic Ocean in the North and the Atlantic in the West. At the same time the influence of summer temperatures is weakened. The formation of Northern Eurasian river runoff appears to be influenced by periodically thawing top horizons of permafrost soil. Time served as an indicator for land use change after inclusion of meteorological data in the models. Maas and Erba showed a significant influence of the time factor. For the Erba the onset of agricultural land use in the catchment coincides with a drop in runoff. A similar causal relationship is suggested for the Maas. Land use can change the formation of runoff, which in turn can be used as an environmental indicator for sustainable land use. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.