Time-dependent modeling of the Baltic entrance area. 1. Quantification of circulation and residence times in the Kattegat and the straits of the Baltic sill

A prognostic model for the estuarine circulation in the Baltic entrance area is described. The model is based on the work by Stigebrandt (1983) and is built of a number of flow-regulating physical processes and forced by oceanic sea level, local meteorological conditions, and freshwater supply to the Baltic. It resolves the horizontal variations by dividing the entrance area into 7 sub-basins. The vertical stratification in each sub-basin evolves with time due to mixing, diffusion, and water exchange with adjacent basins. Instead of using a fixed vertical grid, the stratification is described by a variable number of layers created by inflowing water and by a pycnocline retreat near the surface. The model is a highly cost-effective tool compared to high-resolution ED-models since computations are 10(5)-10(6) times faster. Still, the model reproduces the stratification on time-scales longer than a few days as verified by comparison with observed time-series. The magnitude of the simulated average estuarine circulation conforms well to independent estimates of the water exchange. The model is used to quantify the temporal and horizontal variability of circulation, mixing, and diffusion. Long-term average rate of work against the buoyancy forces by entrainment and diffusion is calculated for each sub-basin. The highest rates of work against the buoyancy forces by diffusion are found in the northern Kattegat and in the Fehmarn Belt while the lowest rate is found in the Oresund. The total mixing in terms of transformation of water masses is also quantified. The average residence times for surface and deep water are estimated for each subbasin. Residence times longer than 1 mo are found in Fehmarn Belt and in the deep water of southern Kattegat. In other parts of Kattegat and the Samso Belt the residence times are 1 to 2 wk for surface water and 2 to 3 wk for deep water. The age of the water is defined as the time spent since a particular water mass was in contact with either the sea surface or with tbe vertical model boundaries has been estimated. By comparing the age distribution in the Kattegat with observations of oxygen concentration, it is concluded that the variability of the ventilation of deeper layers is of less importance to the occurrence of low oxygen concentrations compared to other factors such as interannual variability in primary production.