An interdisciplinary modelling approach to evaluate the effects of land use change

A set of three GIS-based models from the field of agricultural economy (ProLand), ecology (YELL) and hydrology (SWAT-G) was applied in the mountainous mesoscale watershed of the Aar, Germany. In a joint modelling exercise a sequence of land use change scenarios was analysed. It was assumed that the average field size for land use systems increases due to changes in the economic and administrative framework, ProLand calculated the spatial distribution of the new production systems on a grid basis. The resulting land use maps were analysed with YELL with regard to the habitat suitability for Emberiza citrinella and with the model SWAT-G in terms of the effects of land use change on hydrologic processes. Multi-functional trade-off relations between economic, ecological and hydrological landscape functions were compiled. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.