Determining the contribution of Antarctica to sea-level rise using data assimilation methods

被引：11

作者：

Arthern, Robert J. ^{[1
]}

Hindmarsh, Richard C. A. ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge CB3 0ET, England

来源：

PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY A-MATHEMATICAL PHYSICAL AND ENGINEERING SCIENCES | 2006年 / 364卷 / 1844期

基金：

英国自然环境研究理事会;

关键词：

ice sheets; sea-level rise; data assimilation; Krylov methods;

D O I：

10.1098/rsta.2006.1801

中图分类号：

O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];

学科分类号：

07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;

摘要：

The problem of forecasting the future behaviour of the Antarctic ice sheet is considered. We describe a method for optimizing this forecast by combining a model of ice sheet flow with observations. Under certain assumptions, a linearized model of glacial flow can be combined with observations of the thickness change, snow accumulation, and ice-flow, to forecast the Antarctic contribution to sea-level rise. Numerical simulations show that this approach can potentially be used to test whether changes observed in Antarctica are consistent with the natural forcing of a stable ice sheet by snowfall fluctuations. To make predictions under less restrictive assumptions, improvements in models of ice flow are needed. Some of the challenges that this prediction problem poses are highlighted, and potentially useful approaches drawn from numerical weather prediction are discussed.

引用

页码：1841 / 1865

页数：25

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