Abrupt non-linear climate change, irreversibility and surprise

被引:95
作者
Schneider, SH [1 ]
机构
[1] Stanford Univ, Dept Biol Sci, Stanford, CA 94305 USA
来源
GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS | 2004年 / 14卷 / 03期
关键词
surprise; abrupt climate change; thermobaline circulation; irreversibility; integrated assessment models;
D O I
10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2004.04.008
中图分类号
X [环境科学、安全科学];
学科分类号
08 ; 0830 ;
摘要
Any discussion of the benefits of greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation measures should take into consideration the full range of possible climate change outcomes, including impacts that remain highly uncertain, like surprises and other climate irreversibilities. Real-world coupling between complex systems can cause them to exhibit new collective behaviours that are not clearly demonstrable by models that do not include such coupling. Through examples from ocean circulation and atmosphere-biosphere interactions, this paper demonstrates that external forcings such as increases in GHG concentrations can push complex systems from one equilibrium state to another, with non-linear abrupt change as a possible consequence. Furthermore, the harder and faster a system is perturbed, the higher the likelihood of such surprises-a conclusion that has significant bearing on the assessment of the potential benefits of the timing and stringency of GHG abatement measures. The paper concludes with a perspective on how to better incorporate uncertainty and surprise into integrated assessment models of climate change. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
引用
收藏
页码:245 / 258
页数:14
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